..The 2023 winners need victory over Paris-Saint Germain to ensure they avoid what would be an embarrassing and costly early exit from Europe
Paris Saint-Germain vs Manchester City is exactly the type of fixture UEFA chiefs had in mind when they revamped the Champions League format, even if the scheduling of the game, on matchday seven of eight in the League Phase, was not exactly ideal. The French and English champions – who met in the semi-finals four seasons ago – were expected to be home and dry by now, assured of their place in the play-offs, if not already in the last-16, and preparing to field rotated starting XIs.
But the game is now anything but the dead-rubber many had envisaged and instead profiles as do-or-die for both teams at Parc des Princes as these two giants battle it out to avoid a humiliating early exit from Europe. Critics of the new format claimed it had been set up to make it easier for the biggest clubs to qualify as all they had to do was finish among the top 24 of 36 teams, and yet the new-look competition has proved to be a real slog for PSG and City, who are placed 26th and 24th, respectively, in the standings.
PSG are on course for the most embarrassing of all their Champions League exits – which is saying something – while City are living dangerously, and defeat in Paris would put them on the brink of the club’s biggest European humiliation since they first qualified for the Champions League in 2011. City finally won the continent’s holy grail in 2023 after a decade-long quest, but they have a lot of ground to make up on their rivals in terms of overall successes, so an early exit would be catastrophic for them as well as three-time winner Pep Guardiola.
GOAL, then, counts the cost of City potentially failing to make the grade as they prepare for Wednesday’s must-win game…
Prize money
The Champions League has long been the richest competition in football, but its expansion from 32 to 36 teams has made it even more lucrative, raising total prize money from €2.03 billion in 2023-24 to €2.437bn. To complicate matters, that pot is distributed in three ways: Performance-related prize money (37.5 percent); value pillar (35%) and equal share (27.5%).
City have already pocketed their equal share, which equates to €18.62 million for participating in the League Phase, while their income from the value pillar – related to club coefficient and broadcast market pay-outs – has already been determined. Performance-related prize money, therefore, is where City stand to lose the most from an early exit.
Each win in the League Phase is worth an additional €2.1m, while draws earn you €700k. City’s disappointing results (two wins, two draws and two defeats) have already seen them part with €7.5m, but an early exit would see them squander even more money. Finishing among the top eight in the standings earns you an extra €2m, while teams ranked ninth to 16th get €1m. City would obviously miss out on both of those payments if they were eliminated.
Making the play-offs earns clubs a meagre €1m, but it provides a gateway to picking up €11m for reaching the last 16, plus a potential extra €12.5m for making the quarter-finals, €15m for the semi-finals, €18.5m for finishing runners-up and €25m for being crowned champions in Munich in June. So City finishing outside the top 24 would see them miss out on a potential €64.5m in the event of winning the competition, and even €24.5m for repeating last season’s feat of reaching the quarter-finals.
Matchday income
Crashing out of the League Phase would also see City part with a considerable amount of potential matchday revenue. According to the club’s last accounts, they made £75.6m from hosting 26 matches at the Etihad Stadium, breaking down to £2.9m per game.
So if reaching the semi-finals would mean playing four additional matches, then not making the play-offs and subsequent knockout phase would see City miss out on close to £12m in matchday revenue.
The figure would likely be even larger due to the higher demand for tickets for Champions League games and the increased number of foreign visitors, who tend to spend more on merchandise than local fans.
Blow to new signings
City have been super-busy in the January transfer window, officially announcing the arrival of defenders Abdukodir Khusanov and Vitor Reis while striking a deal for forward Omar Marmoush. Reis has never played in the Champions League before and stated upon signing for City that winning it was his biggest aim, so imagine his disappointment at not being able to participate in the competition of his dreams in his debut campaign.
Khusanov got a brief taste of the competition with Lens last season, but has never started a Champions League game. Marmoush, meanehile, is the most experienced player of the trio in the Champions League, scoring four times for Eintracht Frankfurt in last season’s group stage, but he has had to make do with Europa League football so far this term.
The three players are still taking a big step up in their careers by joining City, but competing for the Champions League would have been a huge motivation for all of them, so an early exit would be a terrible start to their dream move. UEFA rules mean they are not eligible to play in the final games of the League Phase against PSG and Club Brugge, so elimination would delay their City debuts in the competition until next season.
Embarrassment for Guardiola
As much as Guardiola insists that winning the Premier League is what matters most, everyone knows that the Champions League is, deep down, the competition he cherishes above all. The Catalan earned his reputation as the best coach in the world by winning Europe’s top prize twice in his first three years in charge of Barcelona, in 2009 and 2011, and looked set to build a dynasty of dominating in Europe. But due to a series of agonising eliminations with Barca, Bayern Munich and City, he had to wait 12 years before lifting the trophy again in 2023.
City’s triumph in Istanbul made Guardiola the joint-second-most successful coach in European Cup history alongside Bob Paisley and Zinedine Zidane on three conquests, but Carlo Ancelotti is now two titles ahead of him after winning last season’s prize at Wembley. Trying to chase down the Italian was surely a factor in Guardiola renewing his contract with City for another two years, so an early exit would be a big blow to that aim.
The Catalan has reached the knockout phase in all 17 years as a manager and made the semi-finals on 10 occasions, so not being involved at all would be immensely frustrating for him.
Depriving Haaland
Erling Haaland would also likely be devastated by an untimely exit from the Champions League, the competition he lives for. Haaland has been fascinated with Europe’s top competition since watching the 2008 final on television as a child and he has since turned into one of its most iconic players.
It really was love at first sight as Haaland scored a hat-trick in the first half of his competition debut with Red Bull Salzburg, the only player to do so. That was the first of many Champions League records he would send tumbling, becoming the fastest and youngest player to score 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 45 goals, as well as the only player to score multiple times in four consecutive appearances and the only player to score more than one goal on competition debut for three different clubs.
The Norwegian has scored a barely believable 46 goals in 45 Champions League games, leaving him four strikes from entering the top 10 all-time scorers. Elimination, however, would likely prevent Haaland from breaking Lionel Messi’s record as the youngest player to reach 50 goals. It would also likely see him fall behind Kylian Mbappe – on 50 goals – as the main contender to eventually topple Cristiano Ronaldo as the competition’s record scorer.
Haaland, therefore, has extra motivation to do his part to ensure City get over the line and into the play-offs. Indeed, an early elimination may make him wonder whether he has done the right thing by signing a 10-year contract with the club.
Little left to play for
Being dumped out of the Champions League would also effectively end City’s season four months before the end. Guardiola’s side bid farewell to the Premier League title race long ago as they are currently 12 points behind Liverpool having played one game more.
Failure on the European stage would leave them to fight on just two fronts: winning the FA Cup and finishing in the top four to ensure they make it back into the Champions League. Not exactly pursuits that set the pulses racing, especially for a team that won five trophies in the year 2023.
Goal
